Newly discovered species are increasingly found to be threatened. For some, their formal description may already foretell their extinction, a phenomenon we here term the “Nasar Effect.” This phenomenon is inspired by the tragic fate of Santiago Nasar, the protagonist of Gabriel García Márquez’s Chronicle of a Death Foretold, whose impending death is known to everyone but himself. The Nasar Effect is particularly evident in climate-vulnerable ecosystems, where species may be projected for extinction based on dramatic climate-driven habitat loss. We illustrate the “Nasar Effect” through the description of a new orchid species, Lepanthes nasariana (Lepanthes subsect. Breves), endemic to the cloud forests and páramos of the Western and Central Andes of Colombia, between 2,800 and 3,600 m elevation. The species inhabits mossy branches in shaded, humid environments and is most similar to L. mefueensis, from which it differs by its oblong-lanceolate leaves, falcate petal lobes, and narrowly ovate lip blades with an inflexed appendix, among other characters. Based on its current extent of occurrence (27,502 km²) and area of occupancy (12,775 km²), L. nasariana is preliminarily assessed as Least Concern (LC) following the IUCN Red List guidelines. However, species distribution models projected to 2090 under the SSP5–8.5 scenario indicate a 96% loss of suitable habitat, which would qualify the species as Critically Endangered (CR) under Criterion A3(c). Without immediate and concerted global efforts to mitigate emissions, L. nasariana exemplifies the potential fate of many species described from climate-vulnerable ecosystems, such as the high Andean mountains, where they may already be on a predestined short path to extinction.

Biodiversity loss, conservation strategies, endemism, extinction risk, habitat fragmentation, habitat suitability, high-emission scenarios, montane ecosystems

The ongoing human-caused planetary crisis is driving an unprecedented rate of biodiversity loss, threatening ecosystems and the balance of life on Earth (Cardinale et al. 2012; Díaz et al. 2019). Alarmingly, many species face extinction before they are even discovered (Liu et al. 2022), sparking a race against time to identify, describe, and catalog new species before they vanish (Costello et al. 2013; Boehm and Cronk 2021). It is estimated that three out of four undescribed plants may already be threatened (Brown et al. 2023), given concurrent habitat loss and climate change (Boonman et al. 2024) patterns. These undescribed species are often rare endemics confined to extremely limited ranges (Pimm et al. 2014; Enquist et al. 2019). Many of them are found in mountain ecosystems, where climate change effects have been identified as one of the most significant threats (Foster 2001; Kohler et al. 2010; Alarcón Hincapié and Pabón Caicedo 2013; Schmeller et al. 2022).

Climate change impacts on mountain ecosystems extend far beyond rising temperatures, triggering a cascade of ecological disruptions. These include shifts in precipitation patterns, altered hydrological cycles, and reduced cloud cover (Helmer et al. 2019; Pabón-Caicedo et al. 2020; Mata-Guel et al. 2023; Guzmán Q. et al. 2024). Collectively, these changes heighten the risk of habitat loss and diminish the availability of suitable environmental niches for mountain species (Richards 2021; Cuesta et al. 2023). Many of these species, constrained by narrow ranges and elevation-dependent habitats, may struggle to migrate to more favorable conditions (Bell et al. 2014), with outcomes heavily influenced by species-specific environmental responses (Mamantov et al. 2021). While some species may track cooler temperatures by shifting to higher elevations, particularly in tropical regions (Freeman et al. 2021), for others the lack of higher elevations makes upward migration impossible.

Ultimately, climate change patterns pose a severe threat to the survival of highly specialized mountain species, exacerbating the biodiversity crisis in these ecosystems. This is particularly concerning in the tropical Andes, one of the most biodiverse regions on the planet, exhibiting high levels of endemism and species turnover (Myers et al. 2000; Hazzi et al. 2018). This region harbors an extraordinary richness of plant species, many of which remain undiscovered (Rahbek et al. 2019). Of particular importance are epiphytes, which constitute 30–50% of the vascular flora in neotropical mountains (Nieder et al. 1999; Kelly et al. 2004; Gómez González et al. 2017; Taylor et al. 2022) and are highly vulnerable, with an estimated 60% of neotropical epiphytes already facing extinction risk (Carmona-Higuita et al. 2024). Orchids, the most diverse group of vascular epiphytes and one of the largest plant families globally, face heightened risks due to their highly specialized habitat requirements, including narrow microclimatic tolerances and specific ecological interactions (Zotz 2013; Mondragón et al. 2015; Acevedo et al. 2020). These constraints make them particularly vulnerable to habitat loss and environmental change.

Climate change can also disrupt critical phenological events, leading to mismatches between flowering periods and pollinator activity (Robbirt et al. 2014; Hutchings et al. 2018). Although such mismatches have been documented in other plant groups, their implications for orchids remain insufficiently explored (Wraith and Pickering 2018). However, emerging evidence suggests this gap is narrowing. For instance, Watteyn et al. (2025) modeled the potential spatial decoupling between wild Vanilla Plum. ex Mill. species and their pollinators under climate change scenarios, showing that species with narrow pollination niches are at particularly high risk of losing reproductive success due to future range mismatches. Similarly, Karremans (2024) highlights how the uncertainty surrounding the identity and effectiveness of pollinators of Vanilla planifolia Andrews—combined with its low natural fruit set and climate-driven vulnerability—underscores the urgency of integrating pollinator dynamics into conservation strategies for orchids and their wild relatives.

Lepanthes Sw. is not only one of the most diverse genera of orchids but is also considered a megadiverse plant genus globally, with 1,196 described species (Karremans et al. 2023; Moonlight et al. 2024). Colombia is the country with the highest richness of Lepanthes, totaling 386 species, accounting for 20% of the Pleurothallidinae subtribe in the country (Karremans et al. 2023). Despite their wide distribution, most Lepanthes species exhibit high levels of endemism (Luer and Thoerle 2012), with many known from a single locality (Luer and Thoerle 2012; Pupulin and Bogarín 2012; Karremans et al. 2023), such as mountaintop slopes (Pupulin and Bogarín 2012). This ecological specialization makes Lepanthes highly susceptible to the effects of climate change (Tremblay et al. 1998; Crain 2012; Luer and Thoerle 2012; Pupulin and Bogarín 2012; Acevedo et al. 2020).

In this study, we describe a newly discovered species of Lepanthes with a narrow distribution in high-elevation cloud forests and páramo ecosystems of the Western and Central Cordilleras of the Colombian Andes. We apply species distribution models (SDMs) to assess its current and potential future distribution under different climate change scenarios. Based on these analyses, we use IUCN Red List criteria to evaluate its present and projected conservation status (Zurell et al. 2023; Perdomo et al. 2024). Additionally, using this species as a case study, we explore the broader implications of what we term the “Nasar Effect”, a phenomenon in which newly described species are predicted to face imminent extinction. This effect highlights the urgent challenges of biodiversity discovery and conservation in an era of rapid environmental transformation, underscoring the need for accelerated efforts to document and protect species before they are lost.

This study documents the discovery of Lepanthes nasariana, a narrowly distributed orchid species endemic to the highlands of the Colombian Andes, whose extinction risk is already alarmingly high. Our models project that under the high-emission SSP5–8.5 scenario, the species will lose approximately 96% of its current suitable climatic habitat by 2090, with remnant populations restricted to small climatic refugia in Nevados and Puracé National Natural Parks. Under present conditions, the species qualifies as Least Concern (LC), given its current extent of occurrence (27,502 km²) and area of occupancy (12,775 km²), which are well above thresholds for Criterion B. However, such a drastic future range contraction suggests that the species would meet thresholds for Critically Endangered (CR) under Criterion A3(c) when interpreted within a precautionary and exploratory framework, as these projections are based on habitat loss rather than generation-length-specific reductions. We refer to this phenomenon—where a species’ future viability is already severely compromised at the moment of its scientific description—as the “Nasar Effect,” inspired by “Chronicle of a Death Foretold” (García Márquez 1983).

The case of L. nasariana illustrates a broader and increasingly common pattern in high-elevation tropical ecosystems. Global warming is projected to cause substantial range contractions in many high-Andean plants, particularly those restricted to páramos and upper montane forests. These ecosystems—among the most threatened in the Andes—are expected to undergo severe contraction or disappearance by the mid-21^st century under multiple climate scenarios in Colombia (Alarcón Hincapié and Pabón Caicedo 2013) and across the tropical Andes (Tovar et al. 2022). Such changes reflect not only species-level vulnerabilities but also ecosystem-wide shifts, as entire high-mountain communities migrate upward until they have nowhere left to go (Pounds et al. 1999; Manes et al. 2021; Mata-Guel et al. 2023). High-Andean flora, often characterized by small range sizes, ecological specialization, and dependence on specific microclimatic conditions (Hollenbeck and Sax 2024), is particularly susceptible to these climate-driven shifts.

Within orchids, the genus Lepanthes is emblematic of this vulnerability: approximately 70% of Colombian species are endemic and primarily restricted to montane regions (Moreno et al. 2020; Moreno 2024), and many exhibit narrow elevational ranges and strict ecological requirements (Crain and Tremblay 2014). Our findings are consistent with studies showing that similar neotropical montane epiphytes have limited capacity to survive outside their narrow climatic envelopes and low potential to track suitable conditions upslope under rapid warming (Hollenbeck and Sax 2024). These patterns are not unique to orchids—numerous Andean plant groups, from Espeletia Bonpl. (frailejones) to Polylepis Ruiz & Pav. woodlands, face similar risks under projected warming, making climate change one of the primary drivers of future biodiversity loss in the tropical Andes (Valencia et al. 2020; Caballero-Villalobos et al. 2021).

From a conservation perspective, our results underscore the urgency of adopting integrated strategies that combine in situ and ex situ measures. Protecting and restoring suitable habitats, establishing ecological corridors to facilitate altitudinal migration, and identifying and safeguarding potential climate refugia are critical for high-Andean orchids and other vulnerable flora. Ex-situ measures such as seed banking, cultivation in botanical gardens, and research into reproductive biology, genetic diversity, and population dynamics will be vital for building resilience and adaptive capacity (Liu et al. 2015; Corlett 2023). For species with extreme habitat loss projections such as L. nasariana, reciprocal transplant experiments could provide empirical data on climatic tolerances and inform prioritization of refugia (Morelli et al. 2016; Keppel et al. 2024).

We recognize, however, that species distribution models (SDMs) have inherent limitations. As correlative models, they assume that current climate–distribution relationships will hold under future conditions and that climate is the dominant driver of distribution at the scales analyzed. They may not fully account for microclimatic heterogeneity, dispersal limitations, or biotic interactions (e.g., pollinators, mycorrhizal fungi), nor for non-climatic threats such as habitat destruction. Although we used continuous suitability models and downscaled climatic data to better reflect fine-scale variation in the Andes, caution is warranted when interpreting projections, particularly for species with highly specialized niches and few occurrence records (Hollenbeck and Sax 2024). Future research should integrate field-based validation (e.g., transplant experiments), joint distribution models incorporating mutualistic partners, and land-use change projections to refine predictions and reduce uncertainty.

In conclusion, Lepanthes nasariana exemplifies how newly discovered species in biodiversity hotspots can already be on a trajectory toward extinction due to climate change. Much like Santiago Nasar’s fate in García Márquez’s novel, the species’ projected decline appears inevitable under current trends—but unlike Nasar’s story, there is still time to act. The challenge for conservation biology is to apply the precautionary principle, prioritize conservation planning and modeling under realistic to worst-case climate trajectories, and implement targeted conservation actions before the “death foretold” becomes reality for L. nasariana and countless other high-Andean plants.

The authors thank Tatiana Arias, Eugenio Restrepo, Guillermo Reina, Gustavo Pisso, and Sebastián Viera for sharing distribution records of the species. Special thanks go to Robinson Galindo from Parques Nacionales Naturales de Colombia for supporting orchid research in the Farallones de Cali National Natural Park, whose collection served as the type specimen for the new species.